Gonu Lashes Al Hadd, Oman, With Muscat in the Crosshairs
Ra's al-Hadd, Oman, a small coastal town at the conjunction of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is currently experiencing nearly the full force of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gonu as the storm appeared headed directly for that location. Situated very close to the easternmost point of the Arabian Peninsula with an elevation of only five (5) meters, this town could very well be devastated by Gonu, which is supporting wind gusts of 90 knots (RSMC New Delhi estimate) to 110 knots (JTWC estimate) (167 to 204 km/hr) and wave heights of up to 32 feet or 10 meters (JTWC), which I am guessing would translate into a storm surge of about 18 to 20 feet (about six meters). Hopefully, the residents have evacuated down the coast to the larger city of Al Ashkharah, which has a slightly higher elevation and a modern breakwater but, more importantly, will be experiencing offshore winds, which should greatly reduce or eliminate the threat of storm surge.
(NOTE: I have never lived in nor visited this region, and obtain my information from internet sources felt to be reliable. If anyone native to the region wishes to provide first-hand accounts of storm aftermath or photos, I will be glad to publish them in this blog.)
On a brighter note, Gonu has been significantly downgraded from its former super cyclonic storm status. Furthermore, the Al Hajar mountain range will cause Gonu to rapidly lose intensity due to friction. The mountains represent a double-edged sword, however, for the lifting that will occur as northerly to northeasterly winds strike Al Hajar will result in torrential rains and flash flooding over a fairly wide area.
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm GONU, Infrared Image at 2300 UTC 5 June 2007,
just north of Ra's al-Hadd, possibly beginning a turn toward the north.
Photo courtesy Naval Research Lab (NRL)
The India Meteorological Department (RSMC New Delhi) Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) has for the last two days forecast Gonu to come ashore just south of Ra's al-Hadd. The storm seemed headed directly for Ra's al-Hadd, but beginning with the 2200Z (UTC) 5 June 2007 infrared satellite image appears to be turning to a more northwesterly heading and remaining off the coast. This was perfectly in line with JTWC's projections right up until the most recent Warning 015, issued at 2100Z 5 June, at which time they significantly altered the Gonu ATCF track to pass directly over both Ra's al-Hadd and Muscat. In light of this significant alteration in forecast trajectory, it will be interesting to see whether the apparent northward turn continues.
Presently, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gonu has 80 kt (148 km/hr) maximum 10-minute sustained winds as estimated by RSMC New Delhi and 90 kt (167 km/hr) maximum 1-minute sustained winds as estimated by JTWC. Central pressure has risen at least 50 hPa from yesterday's estimated lows.
At its worst, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gonu was upgraded by RSMC New Delhi at 1700 UTC on 4 June 2007 to Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu (based on 1500 UTC data) and maintained central pressure of 920 hPa and maximum sustained 10-minute wind speed at 130 knots (241 km/hr) with gusts to 160 knots (296 km/hr) for six hours.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at 1200 UTC on 4 June 2007 in Warning 010 indicated central pressure of Tropical Cyclone 02A (Gonu) at 898 millibars (hPa) and estimated maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed at 140 knots (259 km/hr) with gusts to 170 knots (315 km/hr), making it a Saffir-Simpson Category 5 storm (the highest rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale). This storm strength was maintained for six hours.
Check our Tropical Storm, Typhoon & Hurricane Tracking Center frequently for updates on Gonu.
Technorati Tags: Cyclonic Storm Gonu, Tropical Cyclone 02A, RSMC New Delhi, JTWC, tropical cyclone
MORE ....
